FRED macro indicators, yield curve analysis, and recession signals
Macro Indicators Over Time
Yield Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Treasury Yields — 10Y vs 2Y
Housing Starts (Thousands)
Yield Curve Inversion Signal
When the 10Y-2Y spread turns negative, it has historically preceded recessions by 12-18 months. Monitor the spread alongside unemployment claims for confirmation. An inverted curve combined with rising initial claims strengthens the recession signal.
Housing as a Leading Indicator
Housing starts typically peak 12-18 months before a recession and trough during the early recovery phase. A sustained decline below 1,000K starts often signals broader economic weakness, as residential construction feeds into employment, materials spending, and consumer confidence.